The first genetic analysis of the H1N1 influenza has revealed that things may not be as uncollectible as first fear , although scientists let in that history may ply an deterrent example that no - one wants to see followed .
British scientist Nicholas Grassly of Imperial College London and Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh have study the virus’rate of feast , and discovered that it ’s much slower than many had thought … in fact , only just fast enough to keep itself from dying out :
If the new virus broadcast from one infected individual to the next at about the same speed as average flu , that gives an idea of how many typeface there may have been in that meter . A mathematical model permits the calculation of an important variable called R0 – the number of additional people infect , on average , by each case . If R0 is less than one , an infection snuff it out .
Grassly also caution that the estimate is very preliminary . But with the datum usable now , he get an R0 of 1.16 – enough for the computer virus to keep go , but only just .
Do n’t celebrate just yet , however ; New Scientist points out that the grippe pandemic of 1918 first presented with a likewise low rate of spread ( 1.45 ) that jumped to 3.75 during a more deathly second wafture . For now , though , here ’s hop-skip that the rate fall just that small morsel further to take it over the edge .
First genetical depth psychology of swine flu reveals potency[New Scientist ]
Swine influenza
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